A Systems Framework for Characterizing Farm Sustainability’

This paper presents a framework for quant$ying and diagnosing constraints to sustainability of farming systems. For a dynamic, stochastic, purposeful system, sustainability is defined as its ability to continue into the future. It can be expressed as the probability of continuation within specified threshold boundaries through a spectjied future period. Long-term, stochastic simulation of a system model serves as a basis for quantifying sustainability. Hypothesized constraints to sustainability can be tested and ranked by sensitivity analysis. Issues that arise when applying the framework to a particular farm include selecting an appropriate time frame, making assumptions about the future behaviour of system inputs, specifying criteria for system failure, and identifying potential determinants of sustainability. A previously published simulation study of Texas rice farms illustrates elements of the proposed approach. Copyright